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Operational Situation Summary - Ukraine 27 February

The media has been reporting massive Ukrainian victories and impending Russian defeat. The talks have also been cancelled, neither side could agree on the conditions and location. Russia has in the meantime put its nuclear arsenal on alert. Below is however the frontline as it stands roughly. Kyiv Front As we can see from the map, the situation is actually worsening for Ukraine and pretty quickly. While the latest attacks on Kharkiv were beaten back and most of the city retaken by ZSU (Ukrainian Armed Forces), Kyiv is being encircled slowly but surely. The North was the first to fall and rapidly. A direct assault to occupy the city failed yesterday, and it seems a further reinforced assault also failed to breach the city defences. In fact, some of the supply convoys were attacked further slowing the Russian advance. However, if we look at the map, it is clear that the Russians are simply encircling the capital. The road to Korosten is in Russian hands, the road to Zhytomyr is being thr

Conventional Military Options for Russia and possible Ukrainian Defense Strategy

Russian Armed Forces have continued their invasion of Ukraine over the past couple of days. The first operations had begun from the bridgeheads claimed by separatist forces in the so called Donets,  Luhansk People's Republic and the Crimean People's Republic. I will not go into detail comparing the tactical or operational situation. That requires a more serious study. Also, the information coming from the media sources is fairly limited and often contradictory - so drawing the proper conclusions is difficult. However, the overall strategic situation is a lot clearer . The image below shows the current frontline. The major problem is that such a solid frontline beyond these lines do not exist. There have been saboteurs who have been found operating significantly deeper inside Ukrainian territories. But these are roughly the lines where the major conventional forces stand. Ukrainian Mistakes before the invasion Intelligence Failure There have been some failings from the Ukrainian

Frustration of the Political Left in the Indian context

The Left in India has long outlived their sell by date. They have been able to outlive the fall of the Berlin wall, the Soviet Union and even the collapse of Yugoslavia.  After the fall of the Soviet bastion in India (West Bengal) and the demise or change in allegiance of many Left oriented intellectuals, little remains on the ground. The last breath was drawn when the Maoist movement was extinguished in the second decade of the 21st century. It does not mean the Left is extinct. There are still a sufficient number of people - both young and old who remain enamored (or infected) with Communism to this day. Indeed, non Communist parties also often toe a very avowedly socialist line when it comes to public policy.  With the death of a viable political leadership, the Communists survive and try to find like minded voices in the deeps and crannies of society. The Zombified existence remains and continues to create perverted art, articles and a narrative. Though significantly less effective

Documenting Hate against Hindus on r/india

 I am pretty sure there are places where hate and bigotry directed against Hindus is shared and disseminated. However, having joined r/India in reddit actually opened by eyes to something far more one sided and vicious. The hate there has no limits, no naysayers and no justification. This will be my own megathread of all the hate speeches and opinions for the record. I did try reporting to reddit admins and mods but none of the hate speech was removed. So here I am, documenting them here. Exhibit 1 Source   Exhibit 2 Source I will keep updating this.

Trading and Investment Setup 05-October

Overall Market Sentiment This is very confused today. The OPEC meeting did not turn out to be great. They are NOT going to increase the oil production, so the prices are going to remain high. That means BANKNIFTY will most likely not do great. There was another major problem that came up. Facebook plunged in the US since they had a downtime of more than 6 hours. This led to NASDAQ falling by close to 2% in a day! This did not sustain and we can see a recovery. However, there is a China Taiwan crisis looming on the horizon. So International Markets and especially the Asian markets are going to remain choppy for some time to come. India is in a sweet spot. FIIs and DIIs were both buyers yesterday and this trend is likely to continue today offsetting some negativity.  NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY Nifty has opened relatively flat and I think it will remain rangebound, between 17500 and 17750 for the week. Then we have results coming out, starting with TCS on October 8. So if you want to buy these,

Trade and Investment Setup 4 October

The global cues are still weak. But we are seeing some signs of improvement. Bad news first - Evergrande trading has been suspended in the Hang Sei market (Hong Kong) stock market for the next few days. Their index fell more than 2 %. That is huge. In general the Asian markets were under selling pressure. For NIFTY, a gap up opening was assumed looking at SGX NIFTY. It is hovering around 17650 as of publishing this post. I will not enter into a trade until it crosses 17700 and stays there for at least half an hour. There is a lot of anxiety and this may result in some profit booking. BANKNIFTY is up by close to 1% by now and we can expect some profit booking right now. I will just wait and watch. There is not much for me to trade with. I have signed up with Zerodha over the weekend and will buy a few bonds or gilt funds this week. I intend to use this as a pledge for getting my collateral margins in place. As for India, the signs are positive, and the results are coming out from the ne

Trade and Investment Setup for October 1 - Plans and Results

I have started actively trading and investing in the Equities and Futures and Options markets. This is a simple journal of what I do and why. The format will be simple. I will jot down my points during the start of the day and make some plans.  During the day, (when the market opens), I will execute them. After the market ends, I will note down my observations and see where we stand and how far the strategies worked and why. Disclaimer: This is my personal journey. I am not a financial advisor of any sort, so copying my trades or scrips is NOT recommended. Background After rallying almost 1200 points, Nifty finally showed some weakness and and has come down from the highs of 17950 to 17600. That is a big fall. I see a few major problems:  US bond yields are getting higher. Source There is an ongoing energy crisis ongoing. Coal is in short supply, gas stations are running dry . Monthly expiry was on September 30. This led to a lot of positions closing. Ok. This was a minor point. FIIs h